Power, present and future

The government's predictions for zero-load shedding by March 2010 seem to have been wishful thinking and even with several projects in the pipeline, it will take at least another decade for this goal to materialise 

by Badiul Alam

The wishful thinking of the grand alliance government to have a zero load-shedding option from the month of March 2010, has diminished. As the summer knocks on the door, the power officials have been forced to opt for load shedding management in order to maintain the minimum level of power supply. The two hours of load shedding - one hour during the daytime and one hour in the evening - has already been enforced.

According to the Power Development Board (PDB) officials, the volume of the current load shedding is around 700-800 mw. This will be increased further in the coming days because of various factors. One of the factors is that around an additional 1000 mw power demand will crop up for irrigation purposes. Another 350 mw power demand would be added for cooling purposes during the summer months.

In fact, Bangladesh will not have any zero load shedding option in the next decade. The following table of power demand and supply prepared by the PDB would testify to this statement:

From the table it is very clear that the statement made by the Prime Minister's Energy Advisor Dr. Towfique-e-Elahi Chowdhury about the zero load shedding option from March 2010 was not only wishful thinking, but also misleading.

Dr. Chowdhury made this statement on certain assumptions. Firstly, the government has drawn up a plan to supply energy-saving electrical appliances to all the private and public installations. A process has been initiated to procure around 2.60 crore energy-saving bulbs but this process is yet to be completed. It was thought if the energy-saving appliances could be implemented, this would help to save around 250 mw of electricity.

The government is also opting for different load management programmes, which include the increase of weekly holidays for the shops and other commercial installations and staggering the weekly holidays. The government has already divided the capital city into seven zones and staggered the weekly holidays. All shops and the commercial installations would enjoy one and half days weekly holiday, which was earlier one day. The government has also enforced the shut down of all shops and commercial installations within 8 pm following the Shops and Commercial Establishment Act. This would save another 250 mw of electricity. Despite all these measures, the power situation next summer would remain severe, according to the senior officials of PDB.

The power scenario presentation made by the power division stated that power generation could be 4381 mw during the current fiscal considering the fuel crisis. But it has been apprehended that the said forecast could not be maintained. The current power generation has been limited between 3500 to 3600 mw, leaving a shortfall of around 800 mw.

The power scenario in the Chittagong region has already turned worse because of the severe energy crisis. All the public sector power generation plants in the Chittagong region have been shut down because of the energy crisis. The generation of electricity in two units of the Rauzan plant and the Shikalbaha power generation plant have been suspended because of the gas crisis. Rauzan could supply 360 mw and the Shikalbaha could supply 60 mw to the national grid.

Looking for an immediate solution, the government has looked to costly rental power plant options. Several agreements have already been signed with the private developers to install rental power plants in the different corners of the country. The PDB officials hinted that a total 350 mw of electricity could be available from the rental sources within next June. But past experience suggests that none of private developers could maintain their time schedule and they took six months to one year more time to start commercial operations of their plants.

The PDB officials also said that two rental power plants would start commercial operations very soon. From these two rental units a total of 100 mw of electricity would be available. One rental plant is situated at Chittagong and other one in Fenchuganj of Sylhet. Agreements for these two rental plants were signed during the last caretaker regime. These plants were scheduled to start operation a year ago but they could not do so because of various complicities.

The 120 mw peaking plant at Siddhirganj would be ready for commercial operation within the next couple of months. But PDB officials cast their doubts as to whether the peaking plant at Siddhirganj could start commercial operation because of the gas crisis. The current gas crisis forced the shut down of the different power generation units having generation capacity of around 700 mw. In this situation it would be hardly possible to supply gas to the newly developed 120 mw Siddhirganj peaking plant.

The government has also signed a memorandum of understanding with India to avail 250 mw of electricity under the power exchange programme. But the imported electricity would only be available within next couple of years. It has already been estimated an investment of Tk 10 billion would be required to facilitate the import of power from India. This money would be required to develop the transmission lines and the transmission sub-stations.

The government has also drawn an investment plan of US$6 billion to be invested in the next five years to develop the country's power sector. Under this investment plan, US$4.4 billion would be spent for new generation of electricity. Projects have been prepared to have 3900 MW of new generation within the year 2013. The fuel of the planned generation would be coal and liquid fuel. A total 2600 mw would be available from the coal source and the 1300 mw would be available from the liquid fuel source. All the coal that would be required to generate the 2600 mw of electricity would be available from import sources.

People involved in the power business and the power sector development have expressed their doubts about the implementation of the coal-fired power plants. They pointed to the lack of back-up facilities to develop the coal-fired power plants. They pointed out about the port facility. According to them, the Chittagong and the Mongla ports do not have any facility to clear coal consignments. A minimum of three terminals with sufficient capacity would have to be dedicated to clear the imported coal consignment, they said.

An investment of US$ 600 million would be required to develop the transmission line and another US$1000 million would be required for developing the distribution lines. Such huge procurement would have to pass the existing cumbersome procurement process, which might stand as a road block in the immediate implementation of the government ambitious plan, the source said.

Mobilization of funds would be another constraint. Out of the US$6 billion, the government could organize only US$850 million from its own source. For the rest of the funds, the government would have to depend either on multilateral development agencies or from external private sources. Two road shows, one at London and the other at New York, have already taken place to attract foreign funding.