Upazila election, the first bastion of power

The government's announcement that the upazila election will be held in October, before the national polls, has caused a furore of protest among the political parties. However, the upazila election is likely to be a vital turning point in the government's road map...

A PROBE report

There's a common buzz making the rounds that the government has been deterred from its original plans, that it is moving away from its goal. People are saying that government can't handle the situation and that things have spun out of control. All said and done, analysts closely observing the situation say that this is not the case. The government is very much on course and is steadily and surely proceeding towards its target.
In fact, it is in keeping with its previous commitments that the government is holding the local government elections -- the pourashava and city corporation polls at present.
The next local election which the government plans to hold are the upazila elections. These, according to the schedule, are to be held in October, prior to the national election due in December. This plan has been met with a barrage of protest from the political parties. They demand that the national election be held first, and then followed by the upazila election. Even if it was on the same day, they would not object, but not before the national polls.
However, the government stands resolute in its decision. The upazila election will be held in October. "It is after the upazila election that a new turn is likely to take place," says a political observer. After all, starting with the city corporation elections and carrying on up till the upazila elections, if the government can successfully carry out all the local government elections, it will prove to be stronger.
Unlike previous examples set by political government, it is highly unlikely that there will be any manipulation in the upazila polls. If the government had any intention of rigging, subtly or overtly, this would be evident in the present activities for the pourashava and city corporation elections. There has been no manipulation whatsoever in this regard. While the political parties who have decried the local government polls before the national ones all have their respective candidates in the field, the government has none. Not even parties like PDP, often referred to as the King's Party, have not put forward any serious candidate. So the government is not attempting any underhand play in these elections and can hardly be expected to do so in the upazila election either.
Despite all this, the political parties, particularly the major ones and especially Awami League, are more than a little worried about the upazila election. They simply do not want the upazila election to be held before the national polls.
There is the school of thought that feels Awami League's "feeble" resistance to the upazila polls is just an attempt to hide its liaison with the government and to project an anti-government stance. After all, the people are not taking too easy to Sheikh Hasina's globetrotting. She may have been ‘released’ on "medical grounds", but has been jet-setting across the continents, attending weddings, political meetings and even a "clandestine" meeting with the former president HM Ershad, while on a trip to London. All this while Begum Zia languishes in jail, her party in smithereens.
However, sources in the government say that Awami League is in a fool's paradise if it thinks it is getting an upper hand. This, they maintain, is the proverbial lull before the storm.
The people's perception is that Awami League, as well as BNP and others, feel that the party base at the local level will be weakened through the upazila election. They feel they will lose their grip at the grassroots. But that apprehension is unfounded. The catch lies elsewhere.
Political pundits predict that the upazila election will prove to be a climacteric corner in the government's road map. The government seems lax at present, giving the political parties and leaders a relatively free hand, releasing many on bail. Lenient leeway is causing raised eyebrows. However, once the upazila elections are complete, things will change. Smug smiles will be wiped off the faces of the senior leaders of political parties when pending cases are activated and bail orders cancelled. Whatever the public may be thinking, the political leaders are not quite so taken in by the government's present bland façade. They realise the government's anti-corruption drive will get a new lease of life after the upazila polls. The corrupt ones are likely to find themselves behind bars well before the national election. Therein lies their apprehension. They want the upazila election, but only after the national election, not a day sooner.
These senior leaders, particularly of Awami League, realise that they can't afford to miss the boat, pun intended. This may be their last chance to come to power. If they are convicted and incarcerated after the upazila polls, there goes their mighty aspirations. Even if not jailed, they may be barred from participating in the polls. There are enough charges against them for that. The Anti-Corruption Commission, after all, hasn't been idly twiddling its thumbs all these days.
If the upazila elections are held in accordance to plans in October, the major political parties may decide to boycott the national polls too. This might be the only way out for them. In that case, what steps will the government take?
There are two options before the government, if the political parties do eventually decide to boycott the elections. Firstly, come what may, the upazila election will be held. After that, the national election will be held. This will be in strict adherence to the road map with no deterrence, no matter what road blocks may crop up on the way.
This first option may not be all that easy, no matter what strong backing the caretaker government has and how stringent the emergency may be. The fact remains that, Hasina and Khaleda remain polular leaders, warts and all.
In the second option, the government may then decide not to hold the national election. Having completed the municipal and upazila elections, a strong local government will be in place. The elected members of the local government will be people's representatives in the true sense. And not too long ago, the US State Department's Richard Boucher had spoken about dealing with "elected representatives." He pointedly avoided the term "parliament members", specifically saying "elected representatives." This is significant. So the elected representatives of the local government, in all legality, can elect a national government, or a transitional government, as the situation at the time may demand [See PROBE Vol 7 Issue 3, July 11-17, 2008: Transitional Government for Constitutional Reforms]. That will be a bitter pill for the political parties to swallow and so sections within their leadership may be mulling over a disruption of the polls rather than a mere boycott. They have many issues up their sleeves, such as a withdrawal of emergency before the polls and such. They may decide to instigate agitation on these issues so as to thwart the national election. But the warrants of arrest hanging like Damocles Swords over their heads can pose as a dampener to their rebellious plans.
With a transitional/national government in place, there will be a flurry of activity to implement reforms and carry out the other unfinished tasks. The government will then lose no time in tying up the loose ends which are catching everyone's eye and inciting everyone's criticism at present.
During the critical period, the incumbent President may prove to be the first victim. There are all indications to this end. Already charges of corruption have been levelled against his family members. However, this change is likely to be part of larger changes. In other words, as long as this present caretaker remains intact, the President too will remain in office. But if this caretaker government no longer remains in its virtual seat of power, then he too will be dislodged. The caretaker government may resign on its own accord if the election is not held as scheduled, analysts contend. As for the new President? The "elected representatives' will be in place, ready to approve his taking over of office.
The entire nation seems to be hurtling towards a crisis at present, but things are not always as they seem. A clever buying of time can catch unwary politicians off guard. The carefully laid plans of the powers to root out corruption, remain steady on course.